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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions200131100150250300202195

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+13Teleop
+1Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave3
8Coral scored#5
42Coral points27
51Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +8
25Coral scored#24
91Coral points85
4Processor algae#3
4Net algae#9
24Processor points18
16Net points36
40Algae points54
131Total teleop139
Reef
15L4#10
7L3#7
4L2#7
7L1 · trough#5
41Game pieces#41
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +7
6Foul points0
202Total score195

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
88
#8
81.00.5
81.380.8
Auto18.7
Teleop50.9
End11.5
red by 21.5
839
#38
59.53.3
53.757.0
Auto10.6
Teleop39.6
End9.3
Second
5000
#24
55.80.5
56.455.9
Auto18.3
Teleop36.2
End1.2
red by 8.0
177
#36
47.83.3
44.647.9
Auto10.9
Teleop27.8
End9.0
Third
3464
#42
44.00.5
44.444.0
Auto7.5
Teleop34.8
End1.6
red by 12.0
5112
#37
31.93.3
28.631.9
Auto4.6
Teleop25.8
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
36%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned88%Barge oddsEarned