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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15613180100120140180200220240194153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+19Teleop
+41Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave9
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points4
23Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +9
20Coral scored#23
71Coral points82
4Processor algae#4
10Net algae#5
24Processor points24
40Net points20
64Algae points44
135Total teleop126
Reef
6L4#7
6L3#9
6L2#4
5L1 · trough#4
37Game pieces#33
BargeRed +22
36Cage & park14
36Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
0Foul points0
194Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.12.7
58.361.0
Auto12.6
Teleop41.1
End8.4
red by 18.1
3464
#42
44.01.0
43.944.9
Auto7.5
Teleop34.8
End1.6
Second
8410
#16
45.92.7
41.143.8
Auto7.7
Teleop28.7
End9.5
red by 3.4
1757
#15
42.51.0
41.142.1
Auto8.2
Teleop26.7
End7.5
Third
9443
#10
39.82.7
35.438.1
Auto5.1
Teleop25.8
End8.9
red by 8.7
238
#45
31.11.0
32.033.0
Auto3.6
Teleop26.1
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned52%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
26%Coral oddsMissed29%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned74%Barge oddsEarned