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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions184142100200250194121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+55Teleop
+53Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave3
6Coral scored#7
31Coral points37
37Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +58
26Coral scored#13
95Coral points45
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
123Total teleop65
Reef
12L4#8
8L3#6
4L2#2
8L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +73
20Foul points0
194Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
195
#6
80.30.3
73.573.8
Auto20.1
Teleop50.3
End9.9
red by 29.9
172
#19
50.41.0
47.946.9
Auto13.3
Teleop29.6
End7.6
Second
839
#38
59.50.3
52.953.1
Auto10.6
Teleop39.6
End9.3
red by 11.8
177
#36
47.81.0
42.641.6
Auto10.9
Teleop27.8
End9.0
Third
5459
#31
40.90.3
40.741.0
Auto9.0
Teleop31.2
End0.7
blue by 2.8
8085
#21
43.71.0
42.941.9
Auto5.8
Teleop31.2
End6.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
93%Coral oddsEarned37%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsEarned