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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions138197100150250148198

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+30
Endgame+50
Fouls+50
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave6
6Coral scored#5
31Coral points23
40Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +41
14Coral scored#18
50Coral points65
3Processor algae#4
6Net algae#11
18Processor points24
24Net points44
42Algae points68
92Total teleop133
Reef
9L4#8
4L3#6
5L2#6
2L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +50
0Foul points0
148Total score198

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5000
#24
55.80.9
52.353.2
Auto18.3
Teleop36.2
End1.2
blue by 20.9
76.61.4
74.976.3
Auto13.1
Teleop53.0
End10.5
Second
228
#28
43.30.9
39.840.7
Auto8.8
Teleop28.0
End6.5
blue by 13.3
8046
#12
56.51.4
52.654.0
Auto11.5
Teleop36.7
End8.2
Third
34.10.9
31.132.0
Auto8.0
Teleop18.5
End7.6
blue by 8.6
2713
#23
42.71.4
38.239.6
Auto8.3
Teleop27.2
End7.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed80%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
69%Barge oddsEarned98%Barge oddsEarned