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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions210160100150200250218194

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+2Teleop
+24Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave0
10Coral scored#6
51Coral points30
51Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +19
24Coral scored#28
85Coral points100
5Processor algae#5
6Net algae#7
30Processor points30
24Net points28
54Algae points58
139Total teleop158
Reef
13L4#15
8L3#7
9L2#7
4L1 · trough#5
45Game pieces#46
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
2Foul points2
218Total score194

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
78.41.0
73.474.4
Auto19.1
Teleop51.4
End7.9
red by 11.5
66.81.8
60.262.1
Auto16.8
Teleop45.1
End4.9
Second
67.51.0
69.770.7
Auto22.0
Teleop38.1
End7.4
red by 14.9
236
#32
52.61.8
48.450.2
Auto9.0
Teleop36.3
End7.3
Third
7869
#35
45.31.0
47.248.2
Auto5.2
Teleop38.3
End1.9
red by 1.4
3464
#42
44.01.8
44.946.7
Auto7.5
Teleop34.8
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
90%Coral oddsEarned13%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
89%Barge oddsEarned78%Barge oddsMissed