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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions161110050150200163125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+52Teleop
+50Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave3
4Coral scored#1
21Coral points6
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +31
25Coral scored#19
91Coral points70
4Processor algae#1
4Net algae#6
24Processor points6
16Net points24
40Algae points30
131Total teleop100
Reef
10L4#7
11L3#8
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points12
163Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
176
#7
71.30.6
65.866.4
Auto20.8
Teleop45.3
End5.3
red by 33.9
8889
#39
37.50.3
33.933.7
Auto9.0
Teleop26.2
End2.4
Second
5459
#31
40.90.6
41.041.5
Auto9.0
Teleop31.2
End0.7
red by 8.4
8023
#33
32.60.3
30.630.3
Auto3.7
Teleop24.9
End4.0
Third
5112
#37
31.90.6
28.328.9
Auto4.6
Teleop25.8
End1.5
red by 0.8
238
#45
31.10.3
33.032.8
Auto3.6
Teleop26.1
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned67%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
54%Coral oddsEarned12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed