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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11421650100150200250300128181

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+63
Endgame+53
Fouls+53
AutonomousBlue +17
0Leave0
4Coral scored#7
19Coral points36
19Total auto36
TeleoperatedBlue +46
16Coral scored#21
59Coral points77
2Processor algae#4
3Net algae#7
12Processor points24
12Net points28
24Algae points52
83Total teleop129
Reef
6L4#7
6L3#12
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
25Game pieces#39
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +53
0Foul points0
128Total score181

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9443
#10
39.80.7
38.138.9
Auto5.1
Teleop25.8
End8.9
blue by 36.8
76.60.6
76.375.7
Auto13.1
Teleop53.0
End10.5
Second
34.10.7
32.032.7
Auto8.0
Teleop18.5
End7.6
blue by 18.9
6201
#43
53.00.6
54.153.5
Auto10.6
Teleop35.8
End6.6
Third
175
#34
32.80.7
32.533.2
Auto7.2
Teleop22.2
End3.3
blue by 17.6
172
#19
50.40.6
46.946.4
Auto13.3
Teleop29.6
End7.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed75%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
85%Barge oddsEarned99%Barge oddsEarned