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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions199137100150250300149154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
+5Teleop
Endgame+17
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +21
9Leave9
3Coral scored#7
14Coral points35
23Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +26
24Coral scored#17
86Coral points60
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
12Processor points12
12Net points12
24Algae points24
110Total teleop84
Reef
10L4#6
7L3#8
5L2#5
5L1 · trough#5
32Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
12Foul points0
149Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.53.0
70.767.7
Auto22.0
Teleop38.1
End7.4
red by 8.6
467
#30
58.91.1
55.556.6
Auto15.0
Teleop33.4
End10.5
Second
1699
#11
62.93.0
64.261.2
Auto7.8
Teleop48.9
End6.2
red by 15.1
177
#36
47.81.1
43.644.7
Auto10.9
Teleop27.8
End9.0
Third
4572
#40
39.33.0
41.938.9
Auto11.5
Teleop24.3
End3.5
red by 6.4
175
#34
32.81.1
33.234.3
Auto7.2
Teleop22.2
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
87%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
89%Barge oddsMissed94%Barge oddsEarned