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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions123160100150200250171185

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+31
Teleop+34
Endgame+22
Fouls+14
AutonomousBlue +31
6Leave3
5Coral scored#12
24Coral points58
30Total auto61
TeleoperatedBlue +3
23Coral scored#21
81Coral points74
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#7
12Processor points18
24Net points28
36Algae points46
117Total teleop120
Reef
13L4#11
6L3#9
6L2#7
3L1 · trough#6
36Game pieces#43
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +14
8Foul points0
171Total score185

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6201
#43
53.02.4
42.645.0
Auto10.6
Teleop35.8
End6.6
blue by 16.0
138
#17
69.01.9
54.656.4
Auto17.1
Teleop41.9
End10.0
Second
5459
#31
40.92.4
39.742.1
Auto9.0
Teleop31.2
End0.7
blue by 20.3
78
#13
61.21.9
55.056.9
Auto18.5
Teleop33.8
End9.0
Third
8889
#39
37.52.4
32.334.7
Auto9.0
Teleop26.2
End2.4
red by 4.4
151
#46
33.11.9
33.835.6
Auto8.8
Teleop25.1
End-0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsEarned20%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
56%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsMissed