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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions122127050100150200250300113155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+44
Endgame+42
Fouls+42
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
2Coral scored#3
10Coral points16
19Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +47
18Coral scored#23
64Coral points83
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#6
6Processor points18
8Net points24
14Algae points42
78Total teleop125
Reef
5L4#7
8L3#7
5L2#6
2L1 · trough#6
23Game pieces#35
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +42
0Foul points0
113Total score155

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
172
#19
50.40.0
42.142.0
Auto13.3
Teleop29.6
End7.6
blue by 12.4
1699
#11
62.92.1
56.858.9
Auto7.8
Teleop48.9
End6.2
Second
228
#28
43.30.0
31.231.2
Auto8.8
Teleop28.0
End6.5
blue by 2.1
7869
#35
45.32.1
43.645.7
Auto5.2
Teleop38.3
End1.9
Third
2713
#23
42.70.0
40.240.2
Auto8.3
Teleop27.2
End7.3
red by 13.5
5735
#41
29.22.1
23.125.2
Auto6.5
Teleop20.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
19%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned54%Barge oddsEarned