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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15718050100200250300350168172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+20
+22Teleop
+2Endgame
Fouls+4
AutonomousBlue +20
0Leave3
7Coral scored#10
34Coral points51
34Total auto54
TeleoperatedRed +42
21Coral scored#17
76Coral points62
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
18Processor points6
24Net points8
42Algae points14
118Total teleop76
Reef
9L4#9
9L3#9
7L2#5
3L1 · trough#4
37Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +4
0Foul points6
168Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.60.6
74.074.7
Auto13.1
Teleop53.0
End10.5
red by 15.4
78
#13
61.20.6
60.459.8
Auto18.5
Teleop33.8
End9.0
Second
177
#36
47.80.6
44.745.3
Auto10.9
Teleop27.8
End9.0
blue by 11.2
467
#30
58.90.6
56.656.0
Auto15.0
Teleop33.4
End10.5
Third
5735
#41
29.20.6
28.529.2
Auto6.5
Teleop20.9
End1.8
blue by 16.7
8410
#16
45.90.6
46.946.3
Auto7.7
Teleop28.7
End9.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
63%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned97%Barge oddsEarned