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Red188
490534.1
427274.3
546878.2
Blue131
365557.2
34354.5
666536.1
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions222175100150200250300188131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+29Auto
+45Teleop
+55Endgame
+57Fouls
AutonomousRed +29
3Leave0
10Coral scored#4
48Coral points22
51Total auto22
TeleoperatedRed +16
24Coral scored#13
85Coral points47
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#7
12Processor points18
12Net points28
24Algae points46
109Total teleop93
Reef
8L4#8
10L3#3
8L2#4
8L1 · trough#2
39Game pieces#27
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +57
2Foul points0
188Total score131

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5468
#13
78.21.3
79.678.4
Auto19.4
Teleop47.5
End11.2
red by 21.0
3655
#46
57.22.3
59.557.2
Auto12.3
Teleop34.8
End10.1
Second
4272
#23
74.31.3
78.977.6
Auto18.6
Teleop45.6
End10.1
red by 19.8
343
#33
54.52.3
56.854.5
Auto11.1
Teleop36.0
End7.4
Third
4905
#66
34.11.3
35.434.1
Auto8.4
Teleop21.2
End4.5
blue by 2.0
6665
#48
36.12.3
38.536.1
Auto5.7
Teleop23.6
End6.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
74%Coral oddsMissed77%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
99%Barge oddsEarned98%Barge oddsEarned