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Red193
138865.9
283272.4
304464.8
Blue177
62467.4
222862.1
744442.1
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions209175100150200250300193177

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+8
+14Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave6
5Coral scored#5
23Coral points24
26Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +4
17Coral scored#30
61Coral points109
4Processor algae#2
11Net algae#3
24Processor points12
44Net points12
68Algae points24
129Total teleop133
Reef
8L4#11
7L3#13
5L2#6
2L1 · trough#5
37Game pieces#40
BargeRed +22
36Cage & park14
36Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
2Foul points0
193Total score177

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.40.6
70.069.3
Auto19.7
Teleop45.1
End7.7
red by 5.0
624
#36
67.40.3
59.159.4
Auto8.4
Teleop51.7
End7.3
Second
1388
#26
65.90.6
55.655.0
Auto12.8
Teleop44.8
End8.3
red by 3.9
2228
#40
62.10.3
63.363.6
Auto12.7
Teleop40.7
End8.7
Third
3044
#19
64.80.6
63.662.9
Auto13.1
Teleop43.9
End7.8
red by 22.7
7444
#75
42.10.3
39.239.5
Auto11.1
Teleop30.6
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
94%Coral oddsEarned37%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
76%Barge oddsEarned62%Barge oddsMissed