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Red200
614773.2
44975.4
34354.5
Blue175
300839.3
756551.0
694060.1
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions21612450100150200250300200175

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+27Teleop
+25Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave9
9Coral scored#5
44Coral points25
44Total auto34
TeleoperatedRed +17
30Coral scored#18
108Coral points63
2Processor algae#4
3Net algae#7
12Processor points24
12Net points28
24Algae points52
132Total teleop115
Reef
16L4#8
12L3#7
8L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
44Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
0Foul points0
200Total score175

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
449
#10
75.40.4
66.566.2
Auto13.2
Teleop52.8
End9.4
red by 15.3
6940
#52
60.13.1
50.753.8
Auto19.2
Teleop34.3
End6.5
Second
6147
#16
73.20.4
67.467.0
Auto18.3
Teleop46.2
End8.7
red by 22.2
7565
#65
51.02.8
39.942.7
Auto6.9
Teleop36.7
End7.4
Third
343
#33
54.50.4
60.359.9
Auto11.1
Teleop36.0
End7.4
red by 15.2
3008
#51
39.32.8
31.334.1
Auto5.1
Teleop29.3
End4.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
92%Coral oddsEarned12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsEarned