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Red204
449979.8
150246.7
643143.7
Blue172
741533.7
1001447.6
540679.4
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions181172120140160200220204172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+30Teleop
+30Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave6
10Coral scored#8
48Coral points38
51Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +23
25Coral scored#22
89Coral points78
3Processor algae#3
7Net algae#4
18Processor points18
28Net points16
46Algae points34
135Total teleop112
Reef
13L4#13
7L3#8
8L2#5
7L1 · trough#4
45Game pieces#37
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +32
2Foul points0
204Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4499
#29
79.82.4
76.378.7
Auto20.6
Teleop48.0
End11.2
red by 0.4
5406
#25
79.41.2
81.582.7
Auto19.3
Teleop49.1
End10.9
Second
1502
#32
46.72.4
46.649.0
Auto10.1
Teleop30.8
End5.9
blue by 0.9
47.61.2
43.044.2
Auto9.2
Teleop32.5
End5.9
Third
6431
#70
43.72.4
43.345.7
Auto7.8
Teleop35.8
End0.1
red by 10.0
7415
#63
33.71.2
29.530.7
Auto5.1
Teleop26.0
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
38%Coral oddsMissed39%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
63%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsEarned