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Red224
540679.4
643143.7
614773.2
Blue193
107263.6
242951.4
62467.4
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions209190140160180200220240260280224193

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+47Teleop
+27Endgame
+31Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
3Leave3
8Coral scored#2
41Coral points10
44Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +16
33Coral scored#32
120Coral points114
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
18Processor points12
20Net points16
38Algae points28
158Total teleop142
Reef
13L4#11
13L3#13
7L2#5
8L1 · trough#5
49Game pieces#40
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +31
6Foul points2
224Total score193

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5406
#25
79.40.7
82.782.0
Auto19.3
Teleop49.1
End10.9
red by 12.0
624
#36
67.41.5
65.263.8
Auto8.4
Teleop51.7
End7.3
Second
6147
#16
73.20.7
73.672.9
Auto18.3
Teleop46.2
End8.7
red by 9.6
1072
#34
63.61.5
63.762.2
Auto15.6
Teleop38.8
End9.2
Third
6431
#70
43.70.7
45.744.9
Auto7.8
Teleop35.8
End0.1
blue by 7.7
2429
#64
51.41.5
55.053.5
Auto9.0
Teleop34.7
End7.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
60%Coral oddsEarned67%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned79%Barge oddsEarned