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Red237
18870.6
742673.1
546878.2
Blue242
384763.1
86882.4
42295.7
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions236264150200250300350237242

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+27
Endgame+17
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +14
9Leave6
8Coral scored#12
42Coral points59
51Total auto65
TeleoperatedBlue +13
30Coral scored#29
108Coral points105
4Processor algae#6
4Net algae#5
24Processor points36
16Net points20
40Algae points56
148Total teleop161
Reef
15L4#12
11L3#12
6L2#10
6L1 · trough#7
46Game pieces#52
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +5
12Foul points0
237Total score242

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5468
#13
78.20.0
78.778.8
Auto19.4
Teleop47.5
End11.2
blue by 17.6
422
#4
95.70.1
96.696.6
Auto20.4
Teleop62.0
End13.3
Second
73.10.0
73.773.7
Auto14.5
Teleop50.0
End8.6
blue by 9.3
868
#11
82.40.1
83.383.3
Auto20.3
Teleop49.4
End12.7
Third
188
#14
70.60.0
71.271.2
Auto20.8
Teleop42.3
End7.6
red by 7.5
3847
#20
63.10.1
64.464.4
Auto10.8
Teleop44.5
End7.9