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Red150
999128.4
172140.1
31928.0
Blue129
999610.5
23818.8
632870.7
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10714504006008001,0001,2001,400150129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+20
+9Teleop
+21Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousBlue +20
3Leave6
4Coral scored#7
20Coral points37
23Total auto43
TeleoperatedRed +29
23Coral scored#13
81Coral points48
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
109Total teleop80
Reef
10L4#11
8L3#4
4L2#3
5L1 · trough#2
33Game pieces#27
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
2Foul points2
150Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.13.3
39.442.7
Auto6.9
Teleop27.1
End6.2
blue by 30.5
70.70.7
71.972.6
Auto20.5
Teleop42.8
End7.3
Second
28.45.5
14.920.5
Auto6.6
Teleop17.6
End4.2
red by 9.6
238
#12
18.80.7
22.022.6
Auto7.4
Teleop11.5
End-0.1
Third
319
#1
28.03.3
32.035.3
Auto10.0
Teleop13.0
End5.0
red by 17.5
9996
#18
10.51.1
12.813.9
Auto4.7
Teleop4.6
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned62%Barge oddsMissed