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Red85
492516.9
490969.2
147415.8
Blue104
872434.4
23829.7
50115.1
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1196005010015085104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+23
Endgame+13
Fouls+19
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave0
5Coral scored#2
23Coral points12
23Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +34
9Coral scored#13
34Coral points48
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#4
6Processor points18
8Net points16
14Algae points34
48Total teleop82
Reef
5L4#5
4L3#3
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
17Game pieces#22
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +19
0Foul points6
85Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.21.2
67.065.8
Auto17.5
Teleop44.1
End7.6
red by 34.8
8724
#18
34.42.2
25.828.0
Auto6.3
Teleop25.9
End2.2
Second
4925
#34
16.91.2
15.214.0
Auto3.9
Teleop11.8
End1.3
blue by 12.8
238
#28
29.72.2
20.823.0
Auto3.7
Teleop24.1
End1.9
Third
1474
#38
15.81.2
15.414.2
Auto3.0
Teleop11.6
End1.2
red by 0.7
501
#26
15.12.2
11.914.1
Auto3.5
Teleop10.9
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned55%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
28%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
59%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsMissed