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Red170
490969.2
804648.7
359732.9
Blue123
50115.1
767431.5
234256.0
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1638850100150200250170123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+29Teleop
+41Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave0
7Coral scored#5
37Coral points23
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +15
21Coral scored#16
77Coral points58
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
12Processor points12
12Net points16
24Algae points28
101Total teleop86
Reef
6L4#9
11L3#5
7L2#3
4L1 · trough#4
33Game pieces#27
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +47
6Foul points0
170Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.20.5
67.968.4
Auto17.5
Teleop44.1
End7.6
red by 13.2
56.01.7
44.045.7
Auto12.8
Teleop35.4
End7.7
Second
48.70.5
46.847.3
Auto9.3
Teleop32.7
End6.7
red by 17.2
7674
#39
31.51.7
30.231.9
Auto5.6
Teleop24.8
End1.1
Third
3597
#23
32.90.5
30.731.2
Auto4.6
Teleop23.2
End5.2
red by 17.8
501
#26
15.11.7
14.215.9
Auto3.5
Teleop10.9
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned66%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
42%Coral oddsEarned11%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned27%Barge oddsEarned