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Red102
130726.8
841035.7
856727.4
Blue79
636733.2
790710.9
767431.5
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions899060708010011012013010279

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+9Teleop
+23Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
3Leave9
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points3
13Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +8
11Coral scored#14
41Coral points51
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
73Total teleop65
Reef
6L4#6
2L3#4
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#18
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points0
102Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8410
#21
35.70.6
29.329.9
Auto5.9
Teleop23.6
End6.3
red by 2.5
6367
#15
33.20.4
31.531.1
Auto5.3
Teleop27.1
End0.8
Second
8567
#32
27.40.6
26.026.6
Auto6.0
Teleop19.6
End1.9
blue by 4.1
7674
#39
31.50.4
31.931.5
Auto5.6
Teleop24.8
End1.1
Third
1307
#30
26.80.6
23.824.4
Auto3.7
Teleop18.9
End4.2
red by 16.0
7907
#40
10.90.4
12.512.1
Auto4.1
Teleop5.5
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
71%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed21%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsMissed