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Red129
856727.4
271216.9
23829.7
Blue130
492516.9
804648.7
50940.2
10%Model gave it90%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7411850100150200129130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+11Teleop
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave3
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points13
20Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +7
24Coral scored#19
85Coral points68
2Processor algae#3
2Net algae#3
12Processor points18
8Net points12
20Algae points30
105Total teleop98
Reef
10L4#9
8L3#7
6L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
32Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points0
129Total score130

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
238
#28
29.73.2
24.427.6
Auto3.7
Teleop24.1
End1.9
blue by 19.0
48.71.5
47.148.6
Auto9.3
Teleop32.7
End6.7
Second
8567
#32
27.43.2
25.728.9
Auto6.0
Teleop19.6
End1.9
blue by 12.8
509
#8
40.21.5
33.535.0
Auto4.2
Teleop30.3
End5.6
Third
2712
#24
16.93.2
16.019.2
Auto2.9
Teleop10.8
End3.2
blue by 0.1
4925
#34
16.91.5
13.815.3
Auto3.9
Teleop11.8
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
52%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsMissed62%Barge oddsEarned