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Red192
13155.6
362325.4
8869.4
Blue199
16661.5
23828.7
176881.8
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions154190050100250300350400192199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+28
+5Teleop
Endgame+7
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +28
9Leave6
3Coral scored#9
14Coral points45
23Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +33
25Coral scored#26
91Coral points92
5Processor algae#4
11Net algae#4
30Processor points24
44Net points16
74Algae points40
165Total teleop132
Reef
11L4#14
7L3#8
6L2#7
4L1 · trough#6
44Game pieces#43
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +7
0Foul points0
192Total score199

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
88
#10
69.40.7
66.867.6
Auto14.8
Teleop44.8
End9.8
blue by 12.4
81.80.3
80.280.4
Auto23.6
Teleop47.1
End11.1
Second
131
#7
55.60.7
53.053.8
Auto11.0
Teleop40.3
End4.3
blue by 5.9
166
#3
61.50.3
59.960.1
Auto12.9
Teleop39.3
End9.3
Third
3623
#25
25.40.7
23.123.8
Auto4.8
Teleop18.3
End2.3
blue by 3.3
238
#31
28.70.3
27.828.1
Auto4.6
Teleop21.9
End2.1