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Red152
999119.5
346764.4
13858.6
Blue142
999727.3
287756.0
105831.4
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions153104050200250300350400152142

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+6
+16Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
9Leave6
4Coral scored#8
21Coral points38
30Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +8
19Coral scored#16
68Coral points58
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#6
12Processor points6
16Net points24
28Algae points30
96Total teleop88
Reef
9L4#7
5L3#9
5L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#31
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +10
0Foul points6
152Total score142

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.40.3
62.863.2
Auto14.4
Teleop41.8
End8.2
red by 8.4
2877
#13
56.00.5
55.556.0
Auto16.8
Teleop32.2
End6.9
Second
138
#12
58.60.3
57.057.4
Auto13.1
Teleop37.5
End7.9
red by 27.2
1058
#11
31.40.5
30.831.4
Auto8.8
Teleop17.9
End4.5
Third
9991
#26
19.50.6
16.917.5
Auto3.7
Teleop15.3
End1.2
blue by 7.8
9997
#15
27.30.9
26.527.3
Auto8.8
Teleop17.6
End1.5