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Red158
19067.6
581369.6
271340.1
Blue197
13155.6
362325.4
8869.4
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions20214650100250300158197

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+35
Endgame+45
Fouls+39
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave3
10Coral scored#8
51Coral points41
51Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +42
16Coral scored#29
59Coral points105
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#4
18Processor points18
20Net points16
38Algae points34
97Total teleop139
Reef
9L4#17
7L3#7
6L2#9
4L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#44
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +39
6Foul points0
158Total score197

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.60.6
70.569.9
Auto15.3
Teleop45.2
End9.0
red by 0.2
88
#10
69.41.3
65.666.8
Auto14.8
Teleop44.8
End9.8
Second
190
#2
67.60.6
68.467.8
Auto18.1
Teleop42.4
End7.1
red by 11.9
131
#7
55.61.3
51.853.0
Auto11.0
Teleop40.3
End4.3
Third
2713
#27
40.10.6
40.940.3
Auto5.8
Teleop29.4
End4.8
red by 14.7
3623
#25
25.41.3
21.823.1
Auto4.8
Teleop18.3
End2.3