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Red176
691151.9
910022.8
33336.0
Blue93
363736.3
412249.6
249523.5
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10515205020025030035040017693

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+59Teleop
+69Endgame
+83Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave9
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points7
19Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +56
29Coral scored#14
103Coral points49
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
12Processor points6
12Net points16
24Algae points22
127Total teleop71
Reef
13L4#5
9L3#5
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
36Game pieces#20
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +83
14Foul points0
176Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6911
#21
51.92.8
46.749.5
Auto13.3
Teleop32.0
End6.6
red by 2.2
4122
#20
49.63.8
56.252.4
Auto7.8
Teleop33.1
End8.6
Second
333
#4
36.02.8
31.934.7
Auto5.4
Teleop27.0
End3.7
blue by 0.2
36.33.8
43.039.2
Auto7.6
Teleop21.1
End7.6
Third
9100
#13
22.82.8
17.520.4
Auto3.8
Teleop17.1
End1.9
blue by 0.7
2495
#30
23.53.8
28.825.0
Auto5.5
Teleop17.7
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsEarned86%Barge oddsMissed