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Red45
53318.5
599228.2
436116.7
Blue71
363736.3
851357.7
27114.8
17%Model gave it83%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions931670501502002503003504571

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+8
Endgame+20
Fouls+26
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points6
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +5
7Coral scored#9
25Coral points32
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
35Total teleop40
Reef
3L4#4
2L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
10Game pieces#12
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +26
0Foul points6
45Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5992
#22
28.23.4
41.438.0
Auto2.5
Teleop25.5
End0.2
blue by 29.5
8513
#23
57.75.3
65.660.3
Auto19.7
Teleop29.9
End8.0
Second
533
#32
18.53.4
27.123.6
Auto2.4
Teleop13.8
End2.3
blue by 17.8
36.35.3
51.346.0
Auto7.6
Teleop21.1
End7.6
Third
4361
#28
16.73.4
22.919.5
Auto3.6
Teleop7.9
End5.2
red by 2.0
271
#18
14.85.3
21.516.2
Auto1.7
Teleop11.7
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsMissed74%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsMissed80%Barge oddsEarned