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Red49
71421.7
5630.1
68979.6
Blue80
255437.4
181138.4
201615.5
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions791320501001502002504980

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
Teleop+21
Endgame+31
Fouls+31
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
4Coral scored#1
22Coral points6
22Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +31
5Coral scored#11
17Coral points38
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#4
6Processor points0
0Net points16
6Algae points16
23Total teleop54
Reef
3L4#4
3L3#4
2L2#3
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +31
0Foul points0
49Total score80

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56
#27
30.11.8
38.136.3
Auto6.4
Teleop22.6
End1.1
blue by 8.2
38.42.1
45.243.1
Auto7.1
Teleop28.1
End3.2
Second
714
#29
21.71.8
27.625.8
Auto8.8
Teleop11.5
End1.5
blue by 15.6
2554
#24
37.42.1
46.844.7
Auto11.7
Teleop23.2
End2.4
Third
6897
#25
9.61.8
10.68.8
Auto4.6
Teleop3.2
End1.7
blue by 5.9
2016
#10
15.52.1
19.817.7
Auto1.3
Teleop11.5
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed23%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed42%Barge oddsEarned