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Red193
589577.0
162614.9
167652.0
Blue159
108951.6
999920.3
2535.6
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions171117050100150200250300193159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+46Teleop
+46Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave9
8Coral scored#1
38Coral points7
44Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +18
26Coral scored#20
93Coral points71
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
121Total teleop103
Reef
14L4#8
11L3#5
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#4
40Game pieces#28
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +34
2Foul points14
193Total score159

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.00.6
75.476.0
Auto21.4
Teleop46.4
End9.2
red by 25.4
1089
#11
51.60.3
51.451.6
Auto15.1
Teleop32.2
End4.3
Second
52.00.6
50.451.0
Auto12.3
Teleop30.8
End8.8
red by 16.4
25
#12
35.60.3
35.335.6
Auto5.7
Teleop25.6
End4.3
Third
1626
#17
14.90.6
13.313.9
Auto1.7
Teleop12.2
End0.9
blue by 5.4
20.30.4
19.920.3
Auto2.1
Teleop10.9
End7.3