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Red205
45759.5
179677.3
69493.2
Blue33
201615.5
599228.2
71421.7
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions21659010015020025030035020533

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+52Auto
+156Teleop
+178Endgame
+172Fouls
AutonomousRed +52
9Leave3
10Coral scored#1
49Coral points3
58Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +104
26Coral scored#4
93Coral points13
2Processor algae#0
4Net algae#1
12Processor points0
16Net points4
28Algae points4
121Total teleop17
Reef
15L4#2
11L3#1
5L2#1
5L1 · trough#1
42Game pieces#6
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +172
0Foul points6
205Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
694
#1
93.20.8
89.590.3
Auto21.9
Teleop59.8
End11.5
red by 65.0
5992
#22
28.20.9
28.727.8
Auto2.5
Teleop25.5
End0.2
Second
77.30.8
73.674.4
Auto25.2
Teleop44.5
End7.6
red by 55.5
714
#29
21.70.9
22.321.4
Auto8.8
Teleop11.5
End1.5
Third
4575
#19
9.50.8
5.96.7
Auto3.4
Teleop5.1
End1.0
blue by 6.0
2016
#10
15.50.9
16.015.1
Auto1.3
Teleop11.5
End2.8