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Red180
691151.9
910022.8
181138.4
Blue200
108951.6
999920.3
2535.6
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions123113050150200250300180200

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+10
Endgame+20
Fouls+20
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave6
5Coral scored#4
25Coral points22
34Total auto28
TeleoperatedBlue +16
26Coral scored#32
94Coral points116
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#3
12Processor points18
24Net points12
36Algae points30
130Total teleop146
Reef
13L4#17
6L3#11
7L2#4
5L1 · trough#4
39Game pieces#42
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +20
0Foul points0
180Total score200

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6911
#21
51.90.8
49.350.1
Auto13.3
Teleop32.0
End6.6
red by 0.2
1089
#11
51.61.4
48.449.8
Auto15.1
Teleop32.2
End4.3
Second
38.40.8
35.936.7
Auto7.1
Teleop28.1
End3.2
red by 2.8
25
#12
35.61.4
32.333.8
Auto5.7
Teleop25.6
End4.3
Third
9100
#13
22.80.8
20.321.1
Auto3.8
Teleop17.1
End1.9
red by 2.5
20.32.4
14.917.3
Auto2.1
Teleop10.9
End7.3