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Red6
862813.3
4116.1
Blue36
807510.9
127922.8
19325.4
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions38460206080100120636

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+10
Endgame+14
Fouls+30
Autonomouslevel
6Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +10
0Coral scored#3
0Coral points10
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
0Total teleop10
Reef
0L4#2
0L3#1
0L2#0
0L1 · trough#1
0Game pieces#4
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +30
0Foul points16
6Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41
#23
16.13.4
13.510.1
Auto4.1
Teleop9.7
End2.4
blue by 9.3
193
#27
25.42.5
18.916.4
Auto3.9
Teleop20.2
End1.3
Second
8628
#19
13.33.4
8.85.5
Auto2.6
Teleop9.3
End1.4
blue by 9.5
1279
#10
22.82.5
20.718.2
Auto5.0
Teleop16.0
End1.8
Third
9.33.4
13.910.5
Auto2.7
Teleop6.2
End0.4
blue by 1.5
8075
#15
10.92.5
3.10.6
Auto3.4
Teleop5.2
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsMissed43%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed