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Red47
457318.4
21925.2
60169.4
Blue119
22237.1
22328.2
686014.3
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5653020408010047119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+66
Endgame+72
Fouls+72
AutonomousBlue +6
3Leave3
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points9
6Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +60
4Coral scored#14
15Coral points49
0Processor algae#1
0Net algae#5
0Processor points6
0Net points20
0Algae points26
15Total teleop75
Reef
2L4#7
1L3#4
1L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
5Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +6
14Cage & park20
14Total endgame20
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +72
12Foul points12
47Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
219
#16
25.21.8
24.522.7
Auto3.8
Teleop16.3
End5.1
blue by 11.9
222
#18
37.16.3
26.332.7
Auto4.3
Teleop25.8
End6.9
Second
4573
#26
18.41.8
18.016.2
Auto4.5
Teleop12.6
End1.3
blue by 9.9
223
#11
28.26.3
15.722.0
Auto4.9
Teleop19.3
End4.0
Third
6016
#30
9.41.8
8.76.9
Auto0.9
Teleop6.5
End2.0
blue by 5.0
6860
#17
14.36.3
8.114.5
Auto3.6
Teleop8.7
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
23%Auto oddsMissed23%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsEarned