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Red53
363732.6
1036611.2
167225.8
Blue37
457318.4
334017.4
43016.0
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6244020801001201405337

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+4Teleop
+16Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +7
6Coral scored#5
21Coral points18
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
6Processor points6
4Net points0
10Algae points6
31Total teleop24
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#2
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#7
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
0Foul points0
53Total score37

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3637
#12
32.60.4
27.427.0
Auto4.9
Teleop22.1
End5.6
red by 14.2
4573
#26
18.40.8
16.615.8
Auto4.5
Teleop12.6
End1.3
Second
25.80.4
19.419.0
Auto4.8
Teleop18.3
End2.7
red by 8.4
3340
#20
17.40.8
13.212.4
Auto3.6
Teleop12.2
End1.5
Third
11.20.4
7.26.8
Auto1.3
Teleop7.7
End2.2
blue by 4.8
430
#29
16.00.8
11.410.6
Auto4.0
Teleop10.7
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsMissed40%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed