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Red51
19325.4
22328.2
858818.3
Blue103
811725.1
1036611.2
5632.6
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8356010015051103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+54
Endgame+58
Fouls+52
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave0
1Coral scored#3
3Coral points16
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +47
7Coral scored#15
24Coral points55
0Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
0Processor points12
12Net points16
12Algae points28
36Total teleop83
Reef
2L4#4
2L3#7
3L2#5
1L1 · trough#2
11Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +52
6Foul points0
51Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
223
#11
28.22.4
29.326.9
Auto4.9
Teleop19.3
End4.0
blue by 4.3
56
#14
32.64.4
27.431.8
Auto5.7
Teleop27.1
End-0.3
Second
193
#27
25.42.4
24.221.8
Auto3.9
Teleop20.2
End1.3
red by 0.3
8117
#13
25.14.4
20.124.5
Auto4.2
Teleop19.9
End1.0
Third
8588
#25
18.32.4
19.016.6
Auto4.7
Teleop11.5
End2.1
red by 7.1
11.24.4
5.810.2
Auto1.3
Teleop7.7
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsMissed8%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed