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Red121
331451.7
573213.5
83443.2
Blue51
22333.5
689715.8
219113.5
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions92672040608010012014012151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+5Auto
+42Teleop
+60Endgame
+70Fouls
AutonomousRed +5
3Leave9
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points3
17Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +37
12Coral scored#7
42Coral points25
2Processor algae#0
4Net algae#2
12Processor points0
16Net points8
28Algae points8
70Total teleop33
Reef
7L4#3
2L3#2
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#10
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +70
10Foul points0
121Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.71.9
39.841.7
Auto13.3
Teleop30.7
End7.8
red by 18.2
223
#6
33.50.8
27.126.2
Auto5.8
Teleop24.2
End3.5
Second
834
#4
43.23.2
29.933.1
Auto11.4
Teleop23.9
End8.0
red by 27.4
6897
#19
15.81.4
19.418.0
Auto5.4
Teleop10.3
End0.2
Third
5732
#27
13.53.2
12.715.8
Auto1.9
Teleop9.8
End1.7
Level
2191
#24
13.51.4
17.215.8
Auto4.4
Teleop6.5
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsMissed71%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned25%Barge oddsMissed