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Red105
162960.3
704523.9
Blue70
863018.3
858819.7
162615.2
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1237405010015020010570

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+67Teleop
+71Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave3
4Coral scored#1
21Coral points6
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +46
14Coral scored#4
49Coral points15
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
12Processor points0
8Net points8
20Algae points8
69Total teleop23
Reef
7L4#2
6L3#1
4L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#7
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
0Foul points36
105Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.30.3
59.159.5
Auto17.3
Teleop39.8
End3.2
red by 40.6
8588
#20
19.72.5
26.323.8
Auto3.9
Teleop14.9
End0.9
Second
23.90.3
28.628.9
Auto6.5
Teleop15.0
End2.4
red by 5.6
8630
#23
18.32.5
24.421.9
Auto8.0
Teleop9.9
End0.5
Third
7.10.3
12.112.5
Auto1.6
Teleop4.0
End1.4
blue by 8.1
1626
#14
15.22.5
21.318.7
Auto2.0
Teleop11.9
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed