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Red146
314251.9
87146.6
162960.3
Blue137
80756.9
31654.9
901555.6
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12712980100120140160180146137

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+1
+9Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave0
7Coral scored#9
37Coral points44
37Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +6
19Coral scored#16
69Coral points59
3Processor algae#3
2Net algae#3
18Processor points18
8Net points12
26Algae points30
95Total teleop89
Reef
10L4#9
5L3#9
7L2#3
4L1 · trough#4
31Game pieces#31
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +9
0Foul points0
146Total score137

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.30.7
58.559.2
Auto17.3
Teleop39.8
End3.2
red by 4.7
55.60.5
55.355.7
Auto14.0
Teleop36.1
End5.5
Second
51.90.7
50.150.8
Auto9.9
Teleop34.1
End8.0
blue by 3.0
316
#3
54.90.5
54.655.0
Auto15.7
Teleop34.5
End4.7
Third
8714
#24
6.60.7
4.85.5
Auto3.1
Teleop2.0
End1.6
blue by 0.3
8075
#21
6.90.5
6.67.0
Auto3.7
Teleop2.8
End0.4