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Red83
245817.1
436120.1
599238.6
Blue72
942420.6
549017.0
601612.5
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions884701001508372

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+1Teleop
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave9
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points3
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +4
8Coral scored#10
30Coral points36
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
54Total teleop50
Reef
4L4#4
2L3#4
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#14
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
6Foul points6
83Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.60.5
27.426.9
Auto4.7
Teleop33.2
End0.8
red by 18.1
9424
#17
20.60.5
20.320.9
Auto5.3
Teleop14.0
End1.3
Second
4361
#13
20.10.5
22.321.8
Auto4.8
Teleop8.8
End6.5
red by 3.1
5490
#16
17.00.5
11.512.1
Auto4.6
Teleop10.2
End2.2
Third
2458
#19
17.10.5
19.819.4
Auto5.7
Teleop8.7
End2.7
red by 4.6
6016
#24
12.50.5
12.613.2
Auto3.3
Teleop7.1
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsMissed71%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed