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Red42
758716.3
872118.6
20420.6
Blue35
81614.6
42819.4
201618.4
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4949303540455560654235

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+1
+1Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave3
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
4Coral scored#4
16Coral points14
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
0Processor points0
8Net points8
8Algae points8
24Total teleop22
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#7
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +7
6Foul points0
42Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
204
#27
20.60.5
15.214.7
Auto4.3
Teleop14.2
End2.1
red by 1.3
428
#23
19.41.2
14.012.9
Auto4.6
Teleop11.9
End2.9
Second
8721
#25
18.60.5
13.913.4
Auto3.1
Teleop13.4
End2.1
red by 0.1
2016
#28
18.41.2
18.817.6
Auto2.9
Teleop15.0
End0.5
Third
7587
#31
16.30.5
11.310.8
Auto0.2
Teleop13.9
End2.2
red by 1.7
816
#26
14.61.2
12.611.4
Auto4.8
Teleop8.9
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsMissed38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsMissed25%Barge oddsMissed