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Red76
862814.7
87717.2
22247.7
Blue68
127933.6
870713.1
68605.5
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7647020601001201401607668

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+10Teleop
+20Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave6
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
13Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +3
8Coral scored#8
29Coral points28
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
6Processor points12
16Net points8
22Algae points20
51Total teleop48
Reef
4L4#3
3L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#12
BargeRed +10
12Cage & park2
12Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
0Foul points12
76Total score68

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
222
#2
47.70.6
46.246.8
Auto7.8
Teleop33.1
End6.9
red by 14.2
33.60.7
29.530.2
Auto4.5
Teleop26.0
End3.0
Second
8628
#17
14.70.6
13.714.4
Auto2.9
Teleop10.5
End1.2
red by 1.6
8707
#25
13.10.7
10.311.0
Auto3.0
Teleop8.8
End1.4
Third
8771
#29
7.20.6
6.97.6
Auto0.8
Teleop5.5
End0.9
red by 1.8
6860
#32
5.50.7
5.76.4
Auto2.0
Teleop3.5
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsMissed10%Barge oddsMissed