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Red70
5634.8
858823.8
21919.7
Blue40
1060015.3
870713.1
167228.1
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions914601001502007040

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+30Teleop
+32Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave3
4Coral scored#2
19Coral points9
19Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +23
8Coral scored#5
29Coral points18
2Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
12Processor points0
4Net points4
16Algae points4
45Total teleop22
Reef
6L4#3
3L3#2
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#8
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points2
70Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56
#12
34.80.5
32.632.1
Auto7.4
Teleop26.9
End0.5
red by 6.6
1672
#28
28.10.6
27.727.1
Auto6.5
Teleop19.1
End2.6
Second
8588
#15
23.80.5
20.019.5
Auto6.1
Teleop16.2
End1.6
red by 8.6
15.30.6
8.07.4
Auto3.5
Teleop9.7
End2.1
Third
219
#24
19.70.5
25.324.8
Auto4.3
Teleop11.1
End4.3
red by 6.5
8707
#25
13.10.6
10.810.3
Auto3.0
Teleop8.8
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsEarned41%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsMissed20%Barge oddsMissed