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Red124
164041.8
167651.3
942421.5
Blue97
1060015.3
5634.8
428522.8
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1306905010015020012497

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+19Teleop
+19Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave6
8Coral scored#3
40Coral points13
40Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +2
9Coral scored#12
32Coral points44
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
60Total teleop62
Reef
6L4#5
5L3#4
4L2#2
2L1 · trough#4
23Game pieces#19
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +27
8Foul points0
124Total score97

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1676
#11
51.30.0
51.551.5
Auto13.7
Teleop33.3
End4.3
red by 16.5
56
#12
34.80.6
34.234.8
Auto7.4
Teleop26.9
End0.5
Second
41.80.0
42.042.1
Auto8.3
Teleop26.2
End7.3
red by 19.0
4285
#16
22.80.6
22.222.8
Auto4.0
Teleop15.8
End3.1
Third
9424
#19
21.50.0
21.721.8
Auto6.1
Teleop13.4
End2.0
red by 6.3
15.30.6
14.715.3
Auto3.5
Teleop9.7
End2.1