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Red103
880522.2
956413.4
816928.9
Blue193
861350.4
770945.1
802036.5
10%Model gave it90%

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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions57980150103193

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+33
Teleop+82
Endgame+90
Fouls+90
AutonomousBlue +33
6Leave3
1Coral scored#8
3Coral points39
9Total auto42
TeleoperatedBlue +49
13Coral scored#24
48Coral points87
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
6Processor points12
12Net points16
18Algae points28
66Total teleop115
Reef
6L4#9
3L3#7
3L2#10
2L1 · trough#6
18Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +90
12Foul points12
103Total score193

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8169
#23
28.91.5
26.227.7
Auto4.5
Teleop23.9
End0.4
blue by 21.5
8613
#11
50.48.4
36.645.1
Auto10.1
Teleop34.7
End5.6
Second
8805
#32
22.21.5
16.718.2
Auto2.2
Teleop16.7
End3.3
blue by 22.9
45.18.4
23.732.1
Auto9.4
Teleop34.5
End1.2
Third
9564
#26
13.41.5
11.512.9
Auto1.6
Teleop10.5
End1.3
blue by 23.2
36.58.4
23.732.1
Auto3.9
Teleop25.0
End7.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
36%Auto oddsMissed40%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
30%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsEarned