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Red78
858418.5
971515.0
861350.4
Blue96
942740.6
624517.3
588315.8
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions778140601001201407896

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+34
Endgame+24
Fouls+18
AutonomousBlue +17
9Leave6
0Coral scored#4
0Coral points20
9Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +17
8Coral scored#12
27Coral points42
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#3
6Processor points0
4Net points12
10Algae points12
37Total teleop54
Reef
4L4#7
2L3#4
1L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
10Game pieces#19
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +18
18Foul points12
78Total score96

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8613
#11
50.41.6
45.143.5
Auto10.1
Teleop34.7
End5.6
red by 9.8
9427
#19
40.61.5
24.025.5
Auto11.4
Teleop28.9
End0.3
Second
8584
#24
18.51.6
14.112.5
Auto4.1
Teleop10.9
End3.4
red by 1.2
6245
#17
17.31.5
22.223.7
Auto5.4
Teleop10.9
End1.0
Third
9715
#34
15.01.6
11.910.3
Auto3.4
Teleop9.8
End1.8
blue by 0.8
5883
#22
15.81.5
21.923.4
Auto3.9
Teleop11.5
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
40%Auto oddsMissed37%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned49%Barge oddsEarned