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Red66
694729.1
858513.4
816928.9
Blue71
588315.8
880626.4
956413.4
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8970204060801001201406671

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+13
Endgame+1
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave0
2Coral scored#2
9Coral points12
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +10
7Coral scored#9
25Coral points33
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
12Processor points6
4Net points12
16Algae points18
41Total teleop51
Reef
4L4#4
3L3#2
1L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
12Game pieces#15
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
2Foul points6
66Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6947
#13DQ
29.12.6
27.625.0
Auto7.1
Teleop17.2
End4.9
red by 2.7
8806
#15
26.40.7
23.522.8
Auto3.9
Teleop17.3
End5.1
Second
8169
#23
28.92.6
26.423.8
Auto4.5
Teleop23.9
End0.4
red by 13.1
5883
#22
15.80.7
23.422.7
Auto3.9
Teleop11.5
End0.5
Third
8585
#25
13.42.6
21.218.6
Auto3.0
Teleop9.3
End1.1
Level
9564
#26
13.40.7
13.612.9
Auto1.6
Teleop10.5
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsMissed23%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
55%Barge oddsEarned63%Barge oddsMissed