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Red79
682416.7
418327.1
800529.8
Blue59
504918.0
802217.6
901821.5
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6059556570757959

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+16Teleop
+20Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave0
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +10
9Coral scored#9
33Coral points33
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
61Total teleop51
Reef
3L4#5
4L3#3
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#14
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
0Foul points0
79Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8005
#10
29.80.4
18.619.1
Auto6.7
Teleop18.7
End4.4
red by 8.3
9018
#19
21.51.4
20.118.7
Auto3.6
Teleop15.8
End2.1
Second
4183
#11
27.10.6
17.518.1
Auto1.4
Teleop23.9
End1.8
red by 9.1
5049
#44
18.01.4
15.714.3
Auto1.6
Teleop13.5
End2.9
Third
6824
#32
16.70.7
16.817.5
Auto4.0
Teleop11.3
End1.4
blue by 1.0
8022
#31
17.61.4
16.014.6
Auto3.3
Teleop12.9
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsMissed33%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsMissed