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Red58
33330.5
99977.2
529824.2
Blue39
27121.5
188021.9
9998-1.8
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7564204060801005839

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+23Teleop
+25Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave6
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +20
8Coral scored#5
29Coral points17
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
6Processor points6
8Net points0
14Algae points6
43Total teleop23
Reef
4L4#1
3L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#6
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
0Foul points6
58Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
333
#10
30.51.3
37.536.2
Auto5.1
Teleop21.7
End3.7
red by 8.6
1880
#13
21.90.9
24.123.2
Auto5.5
Teleop15.4
End1.0
Second
24.21.3
29.628.2
Auto3.1
Teleop18.8
End2.2
red by 2.7
271
#19
21.50.9
23.923.0
Auto3.1
Teleop17.2
End1.2
Third
9997
#21
7.22.1
11.19.0
Auto2.4
Teleop2.8
End2.0
red by 9.0
9998
#23
-1.81.4
-1.5-2.9
Auto2.1
Teleop-3.7
End-0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
31%Auto oddsMissed64%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsMissed20%Barge oddsMissed