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Red64
154620.8
146851.2
234710.6
Blue78
51412.0
28740.2
56421.0
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions69740501001502006478

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+18
Endgame+20
Fouls+14
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +15
11Coral scored#11
38Coral points39
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#3
6Processor points12
4Net points12
10Algae points24
48Total teleop63
Reef
5L4#4
2L3#3
2L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +14
6Foul points0
64Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1468
#17
51.20.5
32.932.4
Auto10.7
Teleop36.5
End4.0
red by 11.0
287
#4
40.20.9
30.931.8
Auto5.9
Teleop31.5
End2.9
Second
1546
#16
20.80.5
15.815.2
Auto3.0
Teleop16.8
End1.1
blue by 0.2
564
#22
21.00.9
19.420.3
Auto4.8
Teleop14.9
End1.3
Third
2347
#44
10.60.5
14.213.7
Auto3.1
Teleop6.5
End1.0
blue by 1.4
514
#42
12.01.3
16.217.5
Auto2.2
Teleop7.9
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsMissed36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsMissed