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Red84
362422.4
964615.1
2817.5
Blue94
826730.0
27123.1
32948.7
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions62910501001508494

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+16
Endgame+18
Fouls+10
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave9
2Coral scored#0
12Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +19
13Coral scored#14
46Coral points49
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#3
6Processor points18
8Net points12
14Algae points30
60Total teleop79
Reef
6L4#6
6L3#3
2L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
8Foul points0
84Total score94

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3624
#39
22.40.6
20.921.6
Auto4.6
Teleop17.0
End0.8
blue by 26.3
329
#2
48.70.8
27.628.4
Auto5.8
Teleop37.6
End5.3
Second
28
#29
17.50.8
18.519.3
Auto3.6
Teleop12.0
End2.0
blue by 12.6
30.00.8
22.823.6
Auto5.3
Teleop19.5
End5.2
Third
9646
#36
15.10.8
15.115.9
Auto5.9
Teleop7.0
End2.1
blue by 8.0
271
#33
23.10.6
24.525.1
Auto3.8
Teleop17.4
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed